Kiwibank

Kiwi Economics

Kiwibank economists Jarrod Kerr, Jeremy Couchman and Mary Jo Vergara contribute regular articles to provide topical and unique insights into the New Zealand economy.  If you’re interested in receiving our economic updates delivered straight to your inbox, simply click here to sign up. Or follow us on Twitter: @kiwieconomics

Peak inflation means peak interest rates. We expect the RBNZ to deliver 50, not 75. They should deliver 25…

Jeremy Couchman, Senior Economist & Mary Jo Vergara, Economist & Jarrod Kerr, Chief Economist Published on 25 January

Our take on December 2022 quarter CPI inflation data.

Read more of the article "Peak inflation means peak interest rates. We expect the RBNZ to deliver 50, not 75. They should deliver 25…"

The descent from Mount Inflation continues, slowly.

Jarrod Kerr, Chief Economist & Jeremy Couchman, Senior Economist & Mary Jo Vergara, Economist Published on 20 January

December 2022 quarter CPI preview

Read more of the article "The descent from Mount Inflation continues, slowly."

A disappointing end to a tough year in the housing market.

Jeremy Couchman, Senior Economist Published on 18 January

Our take on the latest housing market data from December 2022.

Read more of the article "A disappointing end to a tough year in the housing market."

The chance of a recession increases as business confidence hits an all-time low.

Jarrod Kerr, Chief Economist & Jeremy Couchman, Senior Economist & Mary Jo Vergara, Economist Published on 17 January

Our take on NZIER's December 2022 quarter Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion

Read more of the article "The chance of a recession increases as business confidence hits an all-time low."

Inflation appears to have peaked, and risk appetite has improved. The Kiwi is in an updraft, for now.

Published on 19 December

Kiwibank Financial Markets and Economics: FX Tactical December 2022

Read more of the article "Inflation appears to have peaked, and risk appetite has improved. The Kiwi is in an updraft, for now."

The Kiwi economy surged with a rebound in services and an uplift in construction. The outlook is grey.

Mary Jo Vergara, Economist & Jeremy Couchman, Senior Economist & Jarrod Kerr, Chief Economist Published on 15 December

Our take on the September 2022 quarter GDP report

Read more of the article "The Kiwi economy surged with a rebound in services and an uplift in construction. The outlook is grey."

The Government’s finances may be healthier for now, but a recession is coming in an election year.

Mary Jo Vergara, Economist & Jeremy Couchman, Senior Economist & Jarrod Kerr, Chief Economist Published on 14 December

Our take on the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2022

Read more of the article "The Government’s finances may be healthier for now, but a recession is coming in an election year."

The housing market continues to power down as mortgage rates charge higher.

Jeremy Couchman, Senior Economist Published on 13 December

Our take on the REINZ housing report for November 2022.

Read more of the article "The housing market continues to power down as mortgage rates charge higher."

The Kiwi economy shows resilience, but momentum is slowing into 2023.

Mary Jo Vergara, Economist Published on 9 December

September 2022 quarter GDP Preview

Read more of the article "The Kiwi economy shows resilience, but momentum is slowing into 2023."

We’ve updated our forecasts. The RBNZ will induce a recession, and a steeper decline in house prices.

Mary Jo Vergara, Economist & Jeremy Couchman, Senior Economist & Jarrod Kerr, Chief Economist Published on 6 December

Our 2023 Outlook note

Read more of the article "We’ve updated our forecasts. The RBNZ will induce a recession, and a steeper decline in house prices."